The US economy is recovering, and the Green Industry has weathered COVID very well. In general, construction trades were strong before and remained solid coming out of the pandemic. Recession losses have recovered, and the Green Industry has two to three years of favorable forecasts ahead. Let’s have a look at the various factors that make up our industry forecast.

Stock Market

You may follow the stock market which is a decent indicator because traders look ahead. They know that periods of uncertainty will cause short-term declines and that volatility makes watchers unnerved.  Our recommendation is to follow the long-term trending, not the short-term gyrations.

Politics   

Some of you voice concerns about what politicians in power will do, but historical data show that party control in Washington has little impact on economic growth or decline. Politicians try to claim ownership of the economy; however, the economy is too complex for them to understand and too big for them to ‘control’; the worst they do is throw up or remove a minor roadblock. The economy is owned by markets, not politicians. We, The People, control the markets and economy with our investments and pocketbooks. 

Disposable Personal Income   

A fascinating aspect of this recession is that personal income has increased, which has not happened in any previous recession. In economics, several factors determine the market, but personal disposable income forms the bedrock. This increase allows people to pay off debt and to improve their homes and properties, so this fact promises a good recovery, especially for the Green Industry.

Other industries have not been this fortunate, especially the hospitality industry such as hotels, amusement parks, theatres, restaurants, airlines, stadiums, bars, convention centers. It is evident that it will take the hospitality industry multiple years to recover.

Gross Domestic Product   

ITR Economics projects that the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will grow at least through 2024. The GDP is a general measure of how much wealth is being created, and a healthy economy shows an increasing GDP.

What’s Happening in the Housing Market?

Housing is a bright spot in our economy.  Even though we saw a significant dip during the spring of 2021, both property values and sales bounced back very quickly. 

We can expect the renovation demand to continue. Many employees are still working from home and spending more time at home. They have used their increased disposable income to repair, renovate and improve their properties and we can expect this trend to endure.

New home starts are recovering after a small downturn which can be explained by the uncertainty early on during the pandemic. New home starts will continue strong through 2024. Multi-family home starts have dropped since 2019 and we can expect it to level off around 2015 volume, which is not bad.

Commercial Construction Projections

Private office projects have been declining and will level off to before the 2018-19 spike.  The concern that COVID will halt office construction forever is unfounded since many workers have returned to the office. Indeed, more employees continue working from home since the COVID pandemic, however, it will take a few years to get a clear picture of that trend. Like the residential market, renovation of existing private office space has increased dramatically and makes a great opportunity.

• Education facilities starts show a slight decline but have leveled off and will hold for the next few years. 
• Medical faculties are in deep decline until 2022.  
• Multi-tenant retail has been in decline since 2018.  Online buying caused many small retailers to suffer and the COVID pandemic is giving the blow.  Don’t expect much retail building for a while.  
• Warehousing is a booming business. The increase in online buying has been amplified during the pandemic and contributed to a drastic demand for more warehouse space. 

Green Industry Forecast: it is the Place to Be

In conclusion, housing starts and renovations will drive a sustained increase in the construction business for the next several years. In tandem with that, our Green Industry contractors can expect demand for their services to grow as well. The Green Industry is a great place to be.